Valeriya Morozhnikova
As a China expert originally from Kazakhstan, the topic of Sino-Kazakh relations holds both personal and professional importance for me. Being back in Kazakhstan for the first time in three years, I thought it was the perfect opportunity to delve into the latest developments surrounding China’s growing presence here.
This article draws on insights from national Kazakh and Chinese sources, international media, and my own observations to explore the evolving dynamics of this relationship.
This July, Xi Jinping held his fifth official visit as President to Kazakhstan, pursuing two primary goals: to hold private meetings with Kazakh government officials and to attend the 24th Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Such frequent official visits underscore China’s increasing political and economic influence in Kazakhstan, particularly through the lens of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
China’s presence in Kazakhstan is marked by a robust strategic partnership and frequent high-level cooperation. However, bilateral relations are not without challenges. Despite close governmental ties, many Kazakhstani citizens express anti-Chinese sentiment, mainly fueled by concerns about national sovereignty and human rights.
This article dives in the evolving dynamics of China-Kazakhstan relations, focusing on:
- Its historical development and the current state
- Sino-Kazakh joint projects in various sectors
- Economic and political impact of Chinese investments in Kazakhstan.
Historic development and current state of China-Kazakhastan relations
China and Kazakhstan established diplomatic relations in January 1992, shortly after Kazakhstan declared independence. Embassies were opened in both countries that same year and over the past three decades, trade and strategic cooperation have grown significantly.
According to Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, bilateral trade reached a record $41 billion in 2023. However, the Ministry of Trade and Integration of the Republic of Kazakhstan reported a lower figure of $31.5 billion, reflecting a persistent lack of transparency in official data. This intransparency is nothing new whether for Chinese nor Kazakhstan officials. Nevertheless, despite these discrepancies, China has become Kazakhstan’s largest trade partner, surpassing Russia for the first time. Both nations aim to double their trade volume in the near future, as emphasized by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at a press conference during Xi Jinping’s recent visit.
China’s strategic focus on Kazakhstan is further demonstrated by diplomatic milestones. Kazakhstan is of special importance to Chinese President, as he first proposed the Silk Road Economic Belt Initiative in Kazakhstan in 2013. In September 2022, Xi visited Kazakhstan as his first trip post-COVID-19, marking the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations. During Xi’s visit this summer, Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev stressed that Kazakhstan and China are realizing 45 joint projects worth $14.5 billion across key sectors such as industry, energy, transport and transit, green economy and agriculture areas. The growing importance of this cooperation is underscored by a 16% increase in Chinese investments in Kazakhstan’s economy in 2023, reaching $1.8 billion.
China’s deepening interest in Kazakhstan as its primary strategic partner in Central Asia is evident across all the above mentioned sectors. Let’s explore some of the major joint projects driving the dynamic China-Kazakhstan relationship forward.
Sino-Kazakh Joint Projects in Various Sectors
Chinese companies are increasingly investing in Kazakhstan. According to the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, significant amount of Chinese FDI in Kazakhstan is associated with the implementation of large-scale projects of the Chinese National Oil and Gas Corporation “CNPC”. Astana Times reports the following joint projects between Chinese and Kazakh companies:
- Energy: China Huadian Corporation is strengthening its collaboration with Kazakhstan, focusing on emissions reduction and sustainable energy initiatives. CHN Energy Investment is developing Kazakhstan’s first coal-chemical complex.
- Mining: Beijing Jianlong Heavy Industry and Zijin Mining Group are working on joint ventures in steel production and rare earth extraction.
- Healthcare: CP Pharmaceutical Group plans to establish a medical cluster to enhance healthcare infrastructure.
- Automotive: Beiqi Foton Motor aims to localize vehicle manufacturing, while Sinotruk International is setting up truck production facilities.
- Industry: Additionally, projects such as a soda ash plant, a chemical complex, and an explosives plant highlight the broad scope of industrial collaboration between the two nations.
This July, prior to his official visit to Kazakhstan, Xi Jinping authored a letter titled “Staying True to Our Shared Commitment and Opening a New Chapter in China-Kazakhstan Relations.” In this letter, he emphasized the significance of cooperation between the two nations, highlighting their mutual interests and shared vision for the future. Xi noted the successful completion of several joint projects, including:
- Zhanatas Wind Farm
- Turgusun Hydropower Station
- Modernization of the Shymkent Oil Refinery
He also underscored the potential for further collaboration in new energy and transportation infrastructure, referencing key initiatives such as the operational transport and logistics terminal in Xi’an, the Western Europe-Western China Highway, and the China-Europe Railway Express. These projects are integral to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), showcasing the strategic importance of Kazakhstan in enhancing regional connectivity and economic development.
Chinese authorities have also shown significant interest in Kazakhstan’s natural resources, actively importing them to China. The China-Kazakhstan crude oil and natural gas pipelines play a crucial role in the flow of energy resources. In addition to that, the import of agricultural products from Kazakhstan, which are known for its high quality in China, is also vital for the Chinese agrifood system.
Economic and Political Impact of Chinese Investments in Kazakhstan
Balancing Chinese investments while preserving national interests is a significant challenge for Kazakhstan’s leadership. While these investments promise economic benefits, they also present substantial risks. Among these risks is the increasing debt to China, which raises concerns about economic sustainability and dependency. Additionally, there is growing public discontent linked to the reported persecution of Muslims in Xinjiang, particularly ethnic Kazakhs and Uyghurs. Overall, the extensive market penetration of Chinese enterprises in Kazakhstan further fuels fears among the Kazakhstani populace regarding national economic sovereignty and potential social impacts on future generations.
Increasing debt to China
Public opinion in Kazakhstan on Chinese investments is mixed. There remains a deep-rooted skepticism, primarily due to historical perceptions of China as an adversary. Many Kazakh citizens are concerned about the growing debt to China and fear that agreements between the two states may not prioritize Kazakhstan’s long-term national interests. This public mistrust is further fueled by widespread corruption and a lack of transparency from Kazakh state officials, particularly regarding the specifics and benefits of joint projects with China.
Kazakhstan maintains the most stable position regarding Chinese loans compared to other Central Asian countries. As of January 1, 2024, the country’s external debt to China stood at $9.2 billion, which represents only 3.5% of Kazakhstan’s GDP. However, many researchers argue that China’s actual overseas lending is much higher than the official data of foreign governmental institutions. Since Chinese extend their loans not only directly to government institutions, but also to joint ventures and private enterprises, the debt is not reflected in the government’s balance sheet. Such loans are referred to by researchers as “hidden” loans.
In autumn 2023, China and Kazakhstan signed 30 commercial agreements totaling $16.54 billion (which are all listed here). In November 2024, during Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov visit to China, he participated in the Kazakh-Chinese Investment Roundtable Meeting. According to Kazinform News Agency, eight commercial agreements worth $2.5 billion were signed between leading Kazakh and Chinese companies. These investments underscore the ongoing efforts by both nations to double the previous year’s trade turnover of $41 billion.
Nevertheless, some Kazakh business analysts highlight that fears surrounding Chinese investments are unfounded: “There are people who escalate the situation by fuelling sinophobia, which exists in our society. But let’s look straight at the facts. USA (31 per cent) and our national company ‘KazMunaiGaz’ (31 per cent) have the biggest share in petroleum production in Kazakhstan, followed by the European countries with the combined share 17 per cent in the third place, and China. Russia (3.5 per cent) is well behind on the list of investors. If we look at the reserves data, American and European partners top the list. They develop large fields: Tengiz, Kashagan, Karachaganak.” It will be crucial to observe China’s investment strategy in the next decades, when Western contracts in the Kazakh energy field expire and the market will be reopened to the new players.
So, the key question remains: To what extent do Chinese investments contribute to Kazakhstan’s long-term development, and to what extent do they risk burdening the country with debt under terms set by Beijing?
Persecution of Muslims in Xinjiang
Kazakhstan and China share a border that stretches through the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) on the Chinese side and the East Kazakhstan, Almaty, and Zhambyl regions on the Kazakh side. This geographic proximity has fostered strong historical and cultural ties, particularly through the movement of the Uyghur population, who resided in the Ili River Valley and frequently crossed the border to escape political unrest.
Kazakhstan hosts the largest Uyghur diaspora outside China. Ethnic Kazakhs also have deep connections to Xinjiang, where they form one of China’s 56 recognized ethnic groups. They are the second-largest group affected by China’s repressive policies in the region, often described as genocidal. This has become a sensitive issue for Kazakhstan, where the majority of national population is Muslim, amplifying concerns about the treatment of Uyghur and Kazakh minorities in Xinjiang.
Following Kazakhstan’s independence, then-President Nursultan Nazarbayev implemented a policy to welcome ethnic Kazakhs, known as Oralmans, back to their ancestral homeland offering them the Kazakh citizenship. Many of these returnees became outspoken advocates for human rights, forming organizations like Atajurt Kazakh Human Rights Organization, which has documented extensive evidence of China’s mass internment system and human rights abuses in Xinjiang.
However, since the early 2000s, as Kazakhstan’s economic ties with China have deepened, both the Uyghur and Oralman communities have faced increasing suppression from Kazakh authorities. Serikzhan Bilash, a Kazakh human rights activist, has told in an interview with Financial Times that agents from the National Security Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan forced him to refrain from using words “genocide” and “ethnic cleansing” in relation to what is happening in Xinjiang, arguing that such statements would harm the friendship between China and Kazakhstan.
The issue of China’s crackdown on Muslim ethnic groups continues to pose challenges for Sino-Kazakh relations. Xinjiang holds a pivotal role in this partnership as Beijing views it as a strategic “Western gate” central to the Belt and Road Initiative. Stabilizing the region and mitigating potential unrest are critical priorities for Chinese authorities. Consequently, Kazakhstan must perform a complex balancing act: Maintaining economic cooperation with China while addressing domestic concerns and public sentiment about human rights issues in Xinjiang.
Conclusion
China-Kazakhstan relations have evolved into a complex partnership, offering significant opportunities and posing substantial challenges for Kazakhstan. While significant investments from China present Kazakhstan with substantial economic benefits, including infrastructure development, green energy and trade growth, they also pose potential risks related to economic dependency and national sovereignty.
As Kazakhstan deepens its economic ties with China, fostering transparency, protecting national interests, and addressing public concerns will be crucial. The success of this relationship will depend on Kazakhstan’s ability to leverage Chinese investment strategically, ensuring that the partnership benefits both nations without compromising sovereignty or social harmony.
